Tory support slipping over Mideast stance: poll

A new poll suggests Tory support is sliding over voter concern that Canada has become too cozy with the United States on Middle East policy.

The latest results by Decima Research, released to The Canadian Press, put the Conservatives and Liberals in a virtual tie nationally.

The Tories had 32 per cent support compared with 31 per cent for the Liberals and 16 per cent for the New Democrats.

But the Liberals widened their Ontario lead to 42 per cent of voter support compared with 33 per cent for the Conservatives, and have pulled in front of the Tories in Quebec for the first time since last winter's campaign.

The two parties had been neck-neck in Ontario as recently as mid-June.
"When we look at the combination of the alignment of the government with the current U.S. administration policy on the Middle East -- and in particular with respect to the Lebanon-Israel conflict -- it's reasonable to assume it's one of the factors that's driving Conservative support down in the near term," said Decima CEO Bruce Anderson.
"They clearly are encountering some pushback from voters in Ontario and Quebec in particular."

Liberals have also taken the lead in crucial urban ridings by a margin of 35 per cent versus 29 per cent, and are increasingly preferred by women and by voters aged 25 to 34, the poll suggests.

Middle East policy and hefty new defence spending announced by the Tories in June have apparently left some Quebec voters cold, Anderson says.
The province tends to be the most pacifist in Canada. It's also where Harper has invested most of his political capital in a drive for a majority government.
Harper has been vilified by critics for his pro-Israel stance on the latest crisis in Lebanon. But Anderson notes that the Conservative slide started in June before fighting between Israel and Hezbollah began killing hundreds of civilians, many of them Lebanese children.
Anderson cautioned against reading too much into the latest telephone poll of 1,000 Canadians, taken July 27 to 31.

"I wouldn't say the Conservatives have fallen into some sort of abyss.
"We're talking about shifts that are significant in terms of whether they portend a Conservative minority or majority -- or even the outcome of an election.

"But people know the election isn't going to be held right now."
Indeed, the popularity plunge is expected to be a hot topic as the Conservative caucus gathers this week for a retreat in Cornwall, Ont.

Talk of the Conservatives engineering their own defeat for a snap election this fall has dissipated as polls continue to suggest momentum is not with the minority government.

The continuing Liberal leadership race is another factor, Anderson says.
"People are seeing evidence of a next generation of leadership hopefuls for the Liberal party. It's making it maybe a little bit easier for people to say: 'I might vote Liberal rather than
Conservative in the next election.'"

The poll is considered accurate to within three percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error is higher for regional breakdowns.